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Phoenix Foreclosure Statistics – August 2010

As mentioned in August’s Phoenix Real Estate Market Report, Jim Sexton is back with an update on the foreclosure front.

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Just a note that we’ve also updated our Maricopa County Foreclosure chart.

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Real Estate Market Update – August 2010

For those of us that survived July’s real estate market, we need to know how August treated us.  August showed a 7% increase in number of sales (7525 vs. 7021).  But what’s happening to prices…?  They did continue their decline.  Mike Orr wrote a couple of nice articles on prices in August.   Check them out @ www.cromfordreport.com.

Let me give you the numbers and then some thoughts on where they are going.  The month to month Average Sales Price (ASP) is down 6% to $164,900; Median Sales Price (MSP) is down 4% to $120,000; and Price per Square Foot ($/SF) is down 6% to $85.  These are significant drops for a 1 month period.  Distress properties (REO’s and Short Sales “SS”) make up 69% of the sale numbers, with SS making up 32%.  But the majority of the price decrease is attributable to Normal Sales, i.e. not Distress.  Here are the comparisons from The Cromford Report.

Greater Phoenix / All Dwelling Types $/SF July 29$/SF August 29Change
REOs$67.11$68.07+1.4%
Short Sales & Pre-foreclosures$84.35$81.86-3.0%
Normal$119.77$108.19-9.7%
Overall$90.20$85.43-6.3%

So why did this happen?  According to Mike, “the overall price decline is primarily caused by two main factors: a steep fall in the sales prices of Normal listings over $300,000 and the relative scarcity of Normal sales in August, particularly higher end homes. We saw only 91 Normal sales priced over $600,000 compared with 142 sales the month before.”

So don’t expect to hear many ‘rosy news stories’ this month.  Also remember that we will start to hear about the market’s dismal performance in July.  Here we go with the Consumer confidence factor again.

The foreclosure numbers should be out in a few days and I’ll update you on the market when I receive them.

Have a great month!

Jim Sexton

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Phoenix Real Estate Market Review – July 2010

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Well I guess I’ll start with the trite phrase – I have good news and bad news regarding the greater Phoenix real estate market last month.

Where do we start? With the good news obviously. We closed over 7,000 transactions last month, which is well above the monthly median number for both the last 120 months (10 years) as well as the last 10 Julys. Also the number of Pending Sales is 9,800, which is in the top third for the last 120 months. That doesn’t sound too bad, does it? With ample inventory to choose from, record low interest rates and affordable prices, isn’t the market in good shape?

Well, let’s look at the bad news from July. The number of sales per month is down 23% in the last 30 days (from 9,100 to 7,000). Pending Sales are down 6% (from 10,400 to 9,800) for the same period. Although prices, both average and median are unchanged from 7/09, the average is down $6,000 (3%) and the median down $2,000 (2%) in the last 30 days. The market is indeed undergoing some changes and whether they are all attributable to the tax credit going away or a reflection of consumer confidence and job security, remains to be seen.

I think Mike Orr’s 8/2/10 newsletter on www.cromfordreport.com is a must read. He provides excellent analysis and graphs to show the trends over the last 90 days. There are some developments at different price points that we need to be aware of and continue watching. Stay tuned for more Market Reports later this month. Also be prepared for the Arizona Republic to broadcast the bad news, which probably won’t help the situation much.

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Phoenix Real Estate Market Review – June 2010

Jim Sexton's Market Review Wow a last minute reprieve regarding the tax credit! What’s that mean? We’ll have fewer cancelations of the 17,000 properties currently in escrow. With all the discussion regarding an extension for the last couple of weeks, it appears that not all the lenders, sellers and buyers believed that it was necessary to close by 6/30. Oh well June still has, at this time 9083 closed, that’s basically the same as May, but down about 3% from June 2009. REO and Short Sale (SS) trends continue, namely REO’s are dropping (36%) in number and SS are increasing (25%). Pendings are dropping also – they’re now at 10,502, with 7200+ in AWC.

Regarding the foreclosure numbers, some noteworthy items: New Notices: 6170 the lowest # since 4/08; Number of completed foreclosures 4894-which is up 800 from May; Cancellations 4540-the 2nd highest on record and + 900 from last month; The change in the Pending Foreclosure #’s was the largest drop on record @2673-down to 42,324 the lowest since 3/9. The Bank Owned number rose by 500 to 16,861. You can see the Maricopa County Foreclosure Statistics graphed here.

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Greater Phoenix Arizona Real Estate Market Report – May 2010

Jim Sexton's Market ReviewThere’s a lot being written about the Phoenix Real Estate market as analysts and practitioners try to describe or predict what’s happening.

In my opinion, the market is sputtering on the price front but continues a brisk pace on a volume basis. To me any month with greater than 9000 closings is an outstanding month. May of 2010 was only the 15th month with over 9000 closings in the last 9 ½ years-that’s 113 months if you’re counting. June will probably be the 16th month with a chance of being the 4th month over 10,000 and possibly the highest month on record (The current #1 is June of 2005 with 10,252). All those ‘beat the tax deadline’ closings will motivate buyers and lenders to “get’em closed” this month.

Pendings and AWC’s continue high with 12,400 and 7700 respectively; that’s over 20,000 properties currently in escrow. Life without a tax credit won’t start until next month and then we’ll see how an unsubsidized real estate market reacts.

So to review May: 9100 closings-with only 20 business days in the month; 37% or 3350 were Bank Owned (REO’s); Short Sales (SS) accounted for 22% or 2000 closings. The real story with SS’s is the 4100 in Pending status and the 7100 in AWC status. When these 11,000 properties currently in escrow close, the percentages will have changed dramatically. Go to our blog for a Mike Orr report on Short Sales courtesy of Old Republic Title. Mike does a great job providing details on SS’s by analyzing them from both a supply and demand point of view, breaking them down by zip code. Also he compares SS’s to REO’s by price range. It’s a good report to refer to, if you have an appraiser or bank that needs information about SS’s specific to a zip code.

Another new statistical report came out this month called STAT. ARMLS provides the report and they have an advanced predictor of prices. You can get this report from your flexmls dashboard or click right here.

Also in our Real Estate Market section you will find our chart tracking Tom Ruff’s foreclosure numbers. The chart shows that New Notices of Trustee Sales are down 21% for the first 5 months of 2010 compared to 2009; Completed foreclosures are up 16% ; Pending Foreclosures are down 13% since the first of the year; and the biggest change is 70% more Cancelled in 2010 than the first 5 months last year. The current number of Bank Owned properties in Maricopa County is 16,301, which is made up of 5200 Active listings; 3850 are Pending; and the balance of 7250 are waiting to be marketed.

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Greater Phoenix Short Sale Market Report

Short Sale HelpFor last week’s short sale seminar Old Republic Title commissioned Michael Orr to create a special report explaining the state of the short sale market in greater Phoenix.  The report has been posted to Old Republic’s NewLeading EdgeUcation.com website.  Here’s a direct link to the 10 page pdf.

Have a safe Memorial Day weekend.

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Phoenix Home Sales Statistics – April 2010

April’s numbers are telling us something. I guess it’s up to us to figure out what. I’ll need a couple of articles for April’s review. First the numbers-9200 closings!!! Wow, 4th month in a row of increases both Month over Month and same Month-year over year (y over y). Actually we have had same Month-y over y increases for the last 23 months-another indicator of market improvement. With 14,506 in Pending status, this trend should continue for another month or two. Yes, I realize that the tax incentive is going away, but the Pending’s have to close by 6/30 to be eligible for the tax credit. The Pending’s, combined with the 8000+ AWC’s are at record levels.

Probably most of the focus this month will be on prices and where are they going. Prices are bumping along, up 1 month then down the next. April’s price numbers might make news this month because the 12 month average will be up for the first time in a while. What? That’s right even though the month to month are up then down, our Average Sales Price (ASP) is up 8% over April of 2009. But as reporters are prone to do, they may report on April’s ASP being down 3% from 12/09. Median Sales Prices (MSP) are also up-10% same Month y over y; and 1% from 12/09.

Let’s return to the 9200 closings for April. 38% were REO’s and 22% were Short Sales (SS). You can see that the trend-“REO’s decreasing-with SS increasing” will continue by looking at the Pending’s-33% are REO’s and 29% SS; the AWC’s-over 7000 are SS; and even Active Listings where SS make up 27% with REO’s @14%.

The foreclosure numbers will also be making news this month. Initial numbers for April indicate completed foreclosures were down 20% from March’s record numbers. And Pending foreclosure numbers dropped another 2268-the largest drop on record.

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Phoenix’s Bank Owned Home Numbers

Tom Ruff of the Information Market posted March’s foreclosure numbers recently, which caught my eye regarding the REO market in Maricopa County.

Let me explain. March had 8045 Notices posted which was a 6% increase over February. While that may sound like bad news remember March had 3 more ‘business’ days and the 2010 numbers were 25% below March 2009.

The number of ‘Canceled’ Foreclosures was 3747-the highest month ever. More Short Sales and Loan Mods? (Probably) The Canceled numbers were 7% higher than 2/10 and 15% higher than 3/9. Again starting to sound like good news.

The banks completed 5556 Trustee sales, also the highest month on record. This may be attributed to the longer month and/or the end of a quarter. With the completed sales and the canceled sales, the month showed a 1314 drop in “Bank Owned” properties-the current Shadow Inventory. In fact the number of Bank Owned dropped 2634 for the quarter, the first drop for a quarter since Q1 2006. Wow some might be starting to think the ship is turning.

I did some personal study of the 16,342 current ‘Bank Owned’ properties. I found 4970 active in ARMLS; 384 AWC; 4524 Pending; and 203 Closed so far in April. That’s approximately 10,000 of the 16,000. Are the Bank Owned-but not on the market numbers growing? It appears so-Is that bad? Probably not. Remember the Fannie Mae program of ‘rent backs’ after foreclosure? Wouldn’t that lead to more ‘Bank Owned’ but not on the market?

Again thanks to Tom for his counting, reporting and explaining. It certainly helps to make some sense of what’s happening in today’s greater Metropolitan Phoenix market.

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Greater Phoenix: March Real Estate Review

Initial numbers are in for March. Yes March madness continues. Number of Closed Escrows for March is 8846, that’s a 16% increase over 3/09 and a 34% increase over 2/10. 2010′s YTD Closed figures show a 19% increase over 2009′s 1st Quarter numbers.

REO sales numbers are continuing to decline as a percentage of sales-39% of Closed; 34% of Pending; and 15% of Active listings. Short Sales on the other hand are increasing with 21% of Closed; 30% of Pending (or 3930); another 6585 in AWC status (89%); and 27% of Active listings.

The other noteworthy item is the number of Pendings and AWC’s. Total Pendings on April 1 are 13,190; and total AWC’s are 7429. That’s an awful lot of property in escrow. Let’s hope the AWC short sales get approved and closed.

I’ll comment on Prices at a later date since my initial review of closed sales found over $25 million dollars in sale price discrepancies.

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