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Tag Archive: Cromford Report
Interesting Phoenix Real Estate Statistics
Recently I sat in on an ARMLS class about the Cromford Report that showed agents where to find useful Phoenix real estate statistics. It was interesting and I learned a few things and found a few reports which I’ve included here. The instructor stated that most users find their ‘favorite’ reports and always go to those. As a creature of habit, I’m guilty of that, so having someone else navigate the site and point out a few different reports gave me some different insight into the market.
For example the chart Foreclosures per Month, shows a dramatic trend with the number of completed foreclosures (Trustee Deeds) catching up with number of new notices. What that means is that the number of homes in Foreclosure will continue to trend downward. It appears that we may finally be working our way through the Foreclosure issue.
The next chart/trend that caught my eye was Sales to Landlords/Investors. This chart also gives you the last 10 years tracking not only the number of sales to investors but the percentage. Understand that this is the ‘honor’ system since the Affidavit of Value is being used to determine Owner Occupants from Landlords, but @ 25% of all sales and over 2000 for the month of March (Maricopa County only)you can see how many buyers are buying to rent.
The final chart describing a trend of today is the percentage of homes purchased for cash. It’s interesting to note that the percentage didn’t top 20% until 10/8 and didn’t cross over 40% until 12/10, but has stayed above 40% since then.
I hope you find these specific Phoenix real estate statistics interesting and informative and agree they present a slightly different view of today’s market. The Cromford Report contains many similar ‘hidden gems’. If you get a chance you may want to check it our for yourself or attend a class to better find your way around the website.
Maricopa Foreclosure Chart Turns Residential
We have narrowed the focus of our Maricopa County Foreclosure chart. This improvement affects everyone that has embedded this chart on their website. Since our primarily focus is residential real estate, it only makes sense that our foreclosure chart tracks residential statistics instead of all foreclosures.
Why change now?
Last month when I was updating the chart, I noticed almost all of the numbers in my spreadsheet were slightly different than the source sheet provided by the Information Market/Cromford Report. Since I was going to be removing/replacing all the numbers, why not take advantage of the residential only columns that were added after we began publishing this chart? The spreadsheet was updated.
Why were the numbers different?
After running recent inquires for previous months, Michael Orr and Tom Ruff found there were several (in some cases hundreds) of trustee sales that had been rescinded. They re-ran and updated all months to make sure they are reporting the most accurate data. From my understanding they will be doing this on a monthly basis.
Why our foreclosure statistics will be different
Once I updated the charts it hit me. Unless we add a margin of error to the mix, we’re not going to be able to identify high/low marks or accurately compare past month’s foreclosure activity to the current month. Since we’re only using the data to identify and report trends, a consistent counting time-frame is more efficient than error margins. Our decision is to NOT update the historical data.
Moral of the story
- We’re going to assume there is a consistent margin of error and stick with historic data.
- Our Maricopa County Residential Foreclosure chart will have slightly different numbers than the Information Market/Cromford Report spreadsheet.
- We’ll keep you posted in the event this changes.
How can some experts say Phoenix home values are going up and others say they are going down?
Don’t answer that…yet. First we need to remove some variables.
Let’s pull out the possibility that we’re talking about two different markets – like nationally vs locally. For this question we’ll only analyze the Greater Phoenix real estate market.
We also need to remove the possibility that we’re looking at different data sets – like townhouses vs single family homes. So let’s look at the exact same data – from the exact same system – filtered almost identically.
Next we want to make sure both statements are from similarly educated individuals. I tell you what, to remove all doubt – I’ll say them both. Home values in Phoenix are going up. Home values in Phoenix are going down.
Now that we’ve removed said variables – which statement is more correct?
Uno momento – real quick let me show you a couple of charts from the Cromford Report to help you get the more correct answer.
Here is a chart showing the annual median price of homes sold in greater Phoenix.
Prices are going down-right? This next chart is showing the monthly median price of homes sold in greater Phoenix.
Prices are going up!! It’s hard to see the exact numbers, but hopefully you can make out the trends. If you only look at the top chart (Annual Median) it would be correct to say values are coming down.
However, if you look at the second chart (aka monthly median). You can see that values bottomed in April and have been bumping along since.
The Cromford Report takes Friday’s Feature
I’m a fan of RSS feeds. If you like time saving technology tools, you probably are too. It’s ways nice to be able to visit one website to see if there is any new content on multiple websites – that you choose. If you’re not sure how to take advantage of this powerful piece of technology, you should watch the video – RSS in Plain English. If you’d like a little more instruction on how to set up RSS feeds with an igoogle page – check out this Cool Google Tools presentation. The reason for all this talk about RSS feeds?
Michael Orr with the Cromford Report now has an RSS feed for the articles he and Tom Ruff publish on his website. The feed shares the latest article’s title as a hyperlink so you can click-through (log in) and read the most recent content. Way better than having to login everyday to see if he’s created a new masterpiece. As you probably know, all ARMLS subscribers have free access to the password protected information on his site. (Go here if you still haven’t signed-up for your password.)
Thanks Mike – here’s to helping your fans save time!
Real Estate Training: Learning opportunities ahead!
Diane Flannigan, Director of Career Development, has put together an inspiring series of real estate education classes that will rock your world – and hopefully your business! The diverse training schedule has been created in the Back to School spirit. Only this school is way better than regular school because there are no boring pre-requisites before getting to the good classes. We’re going to start with dessert!
- Your broker, Jim Sexton, is going to be teaching Sell by the Numbers. He’s going to work through the Cromford Reports and teach you how to use the available statistics effectively.
- Jason Smith (American Mortgage Specialists) and Alex Jovicich (John Hall Agent) are going to share with you how to get your clients the revitalization money that is available for homebuyers right here in our local Phoenix neighborhoods.
- Mark Taylor (Originator of the Certified Distressed Property Specialist designation) is going to teach the ins and outs of selling and listing distressed property without going broker or getting sued! (Lawyer’s Title Insurance has sponsored this class.)
- And then there are the technology classes that I (Phil Sexton) will be teaching. I’m really no good at talking about myself. I can’t tell you they are _____, because obviously I’m biased. But if you find the information I share on our blog and office meetings informative, you’ll enjoy these classes. I’m going to drill down into more specifics and show you how to do the things I talk about. My classes will be covering a variety of topics including getting more website traffic, using Facebook effectively, and the technical side of using the Cromford Reports.
So get your calendars out, decide which of these classes you want to attend (or pick D – all of the above) and get ready to rock this year with more closed business than you know what to do with. If all goes as planned you may want Diane to teach a class on building a team just to handle the increased workload!
September 2, 2009 1:30-3:30 Kiva Room, PV Office
Mark Taylor – Introduction to Distressed Properties
September 9, 2009 1:30-3:30 Kiva Room, PV Office
Jason Smith and Alex Jovicich – How to get your clients the Neighborhood Revitalization Money
September 10, 2009 10-12 Kiva Room, PV Office
Phil Sexton – Using and Navigating Facebook
Septmber 15, 2009 1:30-3:30 Kiva Room, PV Office
Mark Taylor – Introduction to Distressed Properties
September 17, 2009 10-12 Kiva Room, PV Office
Phil Sexton – Using and Publishing Cromford Reports
September 22, 2009 1-3 Kiva Room, PV Office
Phil Sexton – Driving traffic to your websites
October 21, 2009 1:30-3:30 Kiva Room, PV Office
Jim Sexton – Selling by the Numbers
October 28, 2009 1:30-3:30 Stewart Room, Scotts Office
Jim Sexton – Selling by the Numbers
Please make sure and let Diane know you’re coming – RSVP to 602.953.4043 x 2310
June Housing Report and Opinion – Ruff’s Report
Just when I thought Ruff’s Reports had been permanently replaced with Orr’s Observations, Mr. Tom Ruff of the Information Market hit Send/Receive. In his latest Housing Report, Tom takes on Zillow, Yahoo, and he lets us know this is the last email to expect. All further commentary will be distributed through the subscription service on the Cromford Report. God Bless Tom Ruff and his pompoms.
The greater Phoenix REO Market
Active Listings – Owned By Banks:
Pending Listings – Owned By Banks:
Monthly Sales of Homes That Were – Owned By Banks:
I’d also like to comment on Michael Orr’s post titled Shadow Inventory from May 23rd. On that day he addressed the rumors that the banks are going to flood the market with all the extra bank owned homes they are holding back. The article is well worth the read. Here are some of the statistics from it…
All numbers are for Maricopa County Only:
18,386 Total Number of Homes Banks Own
- 5,213 Active Bank Owned Listings in ARMLS
- 7,170 Pending Bank Owned Listings in ARMLS
- 477 Temporarily Off the Market in ARMLS
____________________________________
5,526 Unaccounted for Bank Owned Homes
5,143 Bank Owned Homes SOLD in the month of May 2009
Since the banks extra inventory is only a 1 month supply, “flood” or “tsunami” would be incorrect classifications.
Please read the entire article here – get password here. For an example of how you can use the valuable information from the Cromford Report, check out this post by Dru Bloomfield RE: the Phoenix Real Estate Market.
Talk is circling the office about starting a new series on the blog. It would be a Monday posting of greater Phoenix real estate market updates. The decision has yet to be made as to the frequency of said series, however with any new series comes the need for a new creative name. This is where you come in. Any ideas?
The theory of analyzing the Phoenix real estate market – Michael Orr
Michael Orr recently spoke to a group of Phoenix real estate agents. Luckily for everyone that wasn’t able to attend, Fidelity National Title and AZ Imaging teamed up to film it. Thanks to Russell Shaw for bringing the link to our attention. If you are interested in timing the Phoenix real estate market or any real estate market for that matter, schedule an hour out of your day and watch this…
Cromford Report and Flexmls Make You Look Good – Flexmls Feature Friday
Welcome to this weeks edition of flexmls feature friday. Today I would like to talk about the Cromford Report integration that took place last week. Hopefully you are aware of it, especially since ARMLS sent an announcement email to all subscribers. In today’s episode, I plan on showing you where to find the new reports, why they are cool, and 3 ways to use them.
To find the reports! Pick a search, any search. Once you have a list of properties up on your screen click that little tab in the upper right that says Detail. Then select the tab under Detail (to the right a little bit) that says Statistics. Choose City Report or Zip Code Report. Super simple to find. Here’s a picture in the event this written word is unclear.
What happens next is the awesome part. A new window opens (with a unique web address) and the interactive report is displayed. It looks a lot like this…
The report automagically pulls and displays your picture and contact information from flexmls above four graphs. The graphs are Active Listings, Sales per Month, Price per Square Foot and Foreclosures. (If you are looking at the city report the Foreclosure chart’s labels are NT and TD. If you are looking at the zip code report you’ll see the Foreclosure labels are Notices and Trustee Sales – same thing, different labels.) When the sales volume is too low to produce accurate statistics, a warning indication will display. That way you’re not using insignificant data – pretty cool.
The slick part about viewing an actual report page (unlike looking at the picture of it above) is that they are interactive. You can change the city or zip code right from the chart. If you mouse over the graphs, the data points will show the figures. Also the links at the bottom work. If you have questions about any of the charts or wonder how the data is compiled click the FAQ link. Guess what the Print button does?
Okay so you know where to find them, and what is displayed. Let’s talk about some of the ways to share them.
1. Print – Once you have them printed you can give or show them to people – like in a listing presentation.
2. Link – Since it gives you a unique web address you can create hyperlinks. Examples of where you can use hyperlinks are on your website, in an email, or shared with your online social networks.
3. iframe – If you don’t know what this means, no problemo. It’s simply a way to display a webpage within a webpage. Many website companies – like Superlative – make it simple to create <iframe>’s.
And that’ll do it – Happy Flexmls Feature Friday!
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