So I ran the numbers for October 2009 and was a little surprised by the results. Closings +8000. That’s 50% above 10/08. With 12,000 transactions still in Pending status, and the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit scheduled to end this month, November should close a similar number. In fact we may total the most November closings ever, if we top 8071 from 11/04. With 78,000 YTD closings, 2009 is on track to rank as the 3rd highest year on record, which we should reach by Thanksgiving. We are already 30% above the total for 2008 and should end the year up about 50%.

Besides the YTD numbers, let’s look at the trends. The % of REO’s continues to drop both as Closed transactions (44%-3517) and in the Pending category (35%-4190). There currently is a 38-day supply (4417) of Active REO’s. Short Sales (SS) on the other hand continue to increase. SS Active Listings make up 25% (8200) of all Actives with another +6000 in the AWC statuses and October’s Closings were at 20% (1632) once again. With SS Pending’s totaling 31% (3713) the % will increase. A further look at SS shows that both the ADOM and CDOM is about double the ‘not’ SS DOM numbers. 131 vs. 57 for the agent and 140 vs. 78 for the cumulative. I don’t think that’s a surprise to anyone, although it seems like SS are taking much longer than that to most in the field. The Good News is that the DOM for Closed SS is improving-by almost 3 weeks in the last quarter.

The price numbers are continuing to ‘bump around’ with no consistent trend line. October’s Average Sales price was down about $4000 to $171,000 and the Median Sales price was down $2000 to $128,000. Both of these numbers are considerably above the yearly lows of $159,000 and $115,000 respectively, but the Average has been up and down for the past 4 months, with the Median down for the first time since April.

The last number I track is the Vacant properties. October had 78% (6311) of the Closed properties Vacant. As recently as August 27th, the YTD % of all Closings that were Vacant-stood at 85%. This % should continue to decrease as Pending’s are at 72% (8630). This is another positive trend, since the more properties that are sold with people living in them, translates into a pool of buyers for New homes and other Owner occupant transactions.

So the six month review of 2009 shows:

a) the Number of Sales up 50% from 2008 and 66% from 2007;
b) average Sales Price down 33% from 2008 and 51% from 2007;
c) Median Sales Price down 36% from 2008 and 52% from 2007;
d) Foreclosure Notices are up 37% from 2008;
e) Trustee Sales are up 23% from 2008. (Yes I left off the 2007 increase-You don’t want to see it)

Let’s look at our Mid Year trends- Sales increases are slowing down. Pending Sales are below 13,000 for the first time since March. Not a cause to panic as we started the year @ 6,500. Prices appear to be stabilizing for the past few months. A good sign for sellers, and an “Act Now” sign for buyers. Short Sale Active Listings, Pendings and Closings are trending up, while those same statuses for REO’s are dropping. Short Sales and Bank owned properties will continue to dominate the market for the balance of 2009. Why? The combined percentage for these 2 types is still 70% of all Pendings and Closings. And as REO’s have fallen recently, Short Sales have increased.