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Tag Archive: Real Estate Statistics
ARMLS Market Report Analysis
In the middle of each month, ARMLS publishes their official market reports for the previous month’s transactions. That’s when Leif Swanson updates his spreadsheet and shares it with all the REALTORS® at John Hall & Associates. When he sends it over to be added to the company intranet, he includes interesting talking points. Talking points worth passing along…
- 27.73% of the listings sold in April, the highest percentage since November 2005
- 3.61 months’ inventory, the lowest since November 2005
- $161,297 average sold price, the highest in 6 months
- $111,000 median sold price, the best in 5 months
- $193,168 average new list price, the 2nd lowest in 10 years
- Homes sold for 95.68% of final list price, the best in 8 months
- $83.5/square foot, the best in 8 months
- Active listings are down 32.5% since January 1st
- 14,431 pendings on May 13, the 3rd highest total ever
Thank you Leif for sharing your Phoenix Metropolitan Area Real Estate Statistics with us!
Greater Phoenix Arizona Real Estate Market Report – May 2010
There’s a lot being written about the Phoenix Real Estate market as analysts and practitioners try to describe or predict what’s happening.
In my opinion, the market is sputtering on the price front but continues a brisk pace on a volume basis. To me any month with greater than 9000 closings is an outstanding month. May of 2010 was only the 15th month with over 9000 closings in the last 9 ½ years-that’s 113 months if you’re counting. June will probably be the 16th month with a chance of being the 4th month over 10,000 and possibly the highest month on record (The current #1 is June of 2005 with 10,252). All those ‘beat the tax deadline’ closings will motivate buyers and lenders to “get’em closed” this month.
Pendings and AWC’s continue high with 12,400 and 7700 respectively; that’s over 20,000 properties currently in escrow. Life without a tax credit won’t start until next month and then we’ll see how an unsubsidized real estate market reacts.
So to review May: 9100 closings-with only 20 business days in the month; 37% or 3350 were Bank Owned (REO’s); Short Sales (SS) accounted for 22% or 2000 closings. The real story with SS’s is the 4100 in Pending status and the 7100 in AWC status. When these 11,000 properties currently in escrow close, the percentages will have changed dramatically. Go to our blog for a Mike Orr report on Short Sales courtesy of Old Republic Title. Mike does a great job providing details on SS’s by analyzing them from both a supply and demand point of view, breaking them down by zip code. Also he compares SS’s to REO’s by price range. It’s a good report to refer to, if you have an appraiser or bank that needs information about SS’s specific to a zip code.
Another new statistical report came out this month called STAT. ARMLS provides the report and they have an advanced predictor of prices. You can get this report from your flexmls dashboard or click right here.
Also in our Real Estate Market section you will find our chart tracking Tom Ruff’s foreclosure numbers. The chart shows that New Notices of Trustee Sales are down 21% for the first 5 months of 2010 compared to 2009; Completed foreclosures are up 16% ; Pending Foreclosures are down 13% since the first of the year; and the biggest change is 70% more Cancelled in 2010 than the first 5 months last year. The current number of Bank Owned properties in Maricopa County is 16,301, which is made up of 5200 Active listings; 3850 are Pending; and the balance of 7250 are waiting to be marketed.
Phoenix’s Bank Owned Home Numbers
Tom Ruff of the Information Market posted March’s foreclosure numbers recently, which caught my eye regarding the REO market in Maricopa County.
Let me explain. March had 8045 Notices posted which was a 6% increase over February. While that may sound like bad news remember March had 3 more ‘business’ days and the 2010 numbers were 25% below March 2009.
The number of ‘Canceled’ Foreclosures was 3747-the highest month ever. More Short Sales and Loan Mods? (Probably) The Canceled numbers were 7% higher than 2/10 and 15% higher than 3/9. Again starting to sound like good news.
The banks completed 5556 Trustee sales, also the highest month on record. This may be attributed to the longer month and/or the end of a quarter. With the completed sales and the canceled sales, the month showed a 1314 drop in “Bank Owned” properties-the current Shadow Inventory. In fact the number of Bank Owned dropped 2634 for the quarter, the first drop for a quarter since Q1 2006. Wow some might be starting to think the ship is turning.
I did some personal study of the 16,342 current ‘Bank Owned’ properties. I found 4970 active in ARMLS; 384 AWC; 4524 Pending; and 203 Closed so far in April. That’s approximately 10,000 of the 16,000. Are the Bank Owned-but not on the market numbers growing? It appears so-Is that bad? Probably not. Remember the Fannie Mae program of ‘rent backs’ after foreclosure? Wouldn’t that lead to more ‘Bank Owned’ but not on the market?
Again thanks to Tom for his counting, reporting and explaining. It certainly helps to make some sense of what’s happening in today’s greater Metropolitan Phoenix market.
Greater Phoenix: March Real Estate Review
Initial numbers are in for March. Yes March madness continues. Number of Closed Escrows for March is 8846, that’s a 16% increase over 3/09 and a 34% increase over 2/10. 2010′s YTD Closed figures show a 19% increase over 2009′s 1st Quarter numbers.
REO sales numbers are continuing to decline as a percentage of sales-39% of Closed; 34% of Pending; and 15% of Active listings. Short Sales on the other hand are increasing with 21% of Closed; 30% of Pending (or 3930); another 6585 in AWC status (89%); and 27% of Active listings.
The other noteworthy item is the number of Pendings and AWC’s. Total Pendings on April 1 are 13,190; and total AWC’s are 7429. That’s an awful lot of property in escrow. Let’s hope the AWC short sales get approved and closed.
I’ll comment on Prices at a later date since my initial review of closed sales found over $25 million dollars in sale price discrepancies.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Review: February 2010 Market Update
Is it possible? 2 months in the books for 2010 already! How’s the market?
February’s initial numbers show 6528 closed transactions – that’s +19% from February 2009. YTD increase is 21%. The big news for the next 30-60 days will probably be on the price front since February’s Avg. price shows a +$2000 increase over 2/09 and the Median price matched 2/09. We haven’t had a year over year increase in Avg. Sales Price in 30 months. That will be big news once the media starts reporting it.
Bank owned properties (REO’s) continue to fall and Short Sales (SS) rise.
REO’s for 1/10 were 2498 or 43% of closed transactions. 2/10 had 2587 REO’s or 40% of all closings. REO’s for 2009 totaled 55% of all closings.
SS’s for 1/10 were 1245 or 22% of closings. 2/10 had 1561 closings or 24%. 2009 total figures for SS’s were 14%.
As far as forecasting the next 30-60 days, Pending sales are strong with 12,151, and 6975 in AWC status. It certainly appears that buyers are acting to take advantage of the tax credit, which runs through 4/30.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Review: January 2010 Market Update
1/10′s initial numbers are in and there’s mostly positive news.
ARMLS reports:
5762 Closings: Solds were up +22% from 1/09; but they were down -25% from 12/09.
10,657 Pendings: That’s +44% from 1/09; and +6% from 12/09.
REO’s make up 42% of the Closings; and 33% of Pendings; with a 2.2 month supply of Active Listings that are REO’s.
Short Sales were 23% of the Closings; and 34% of Pendings; and 26% of Active Listings are Short Sales.
Sales Prices are down slightly from December 2009; they were -$1 per square foot; they were down $1,500 for the Average Sales Price; and the Median Sales Price was unchanged. The Pending price picture indicates lower prices for the next 30 days or so.
These are the preliminary numbers and they will change for the rest of this week as actual sales are reported and scheduled closings that closed late are corrected. Stay tuned for our Market Updates.
December Home Sales Plunge? Not in Phoenix…
Thank you Bob Bemis (CEO of ARMLS) for successfully sharing with Fox News viewers facts from the Phoenix real estate market.
How To: Cromford Charts on Your Real Estate Website
Last year, I wrote a post that shared my excitement about the Cromford Report integrating with flexmls. The main reason for my excitement is because agents can link the interactive reports from their websites free of charge. You can set ‘em and forget ‘em. They’ll always be up-to-date thanks to the agreement ARMLS has with Michael Orr through the end of the year – hopefully longer. The goal of this post is to show you how to set ‘em.
How To:
Hyperlink Icon
It’s all about hyperlinks. If you’ve never installed a hyperlink – here’s a video that shows on how to create one. (Highlight text, click the hyperlink icon in your page editor, paste destination website address) Once you understand how to create the links, all you need is the URL for the Cromford reports.
Cities or Zip Codes
You get a choice right from the get go, do you want statistical charts based on city names, based on zip codes, or both?
City Report (default set to Scottsdale):
http://www.cromfordreport.com/armlsstatscity.php?Name=John%20Hall%20Associates&Address=Successful%20Agents&Logo=http%3A%2F%2Fjohnhall.com%2FAssets%2Fimages%2Fjohn-hall-rocks%2Fsuccessful-agents.jpg&ListCity=Scottsdale
Copy and paste that whole thing. If you would like to change the default city, remove and replace Scottsdale from the end of the URL with a city name – like Phoenix. It is case sensitive and all the cities in the Valley won’t work, so test after you create.
Zip Code Report (default set to 85260):
http://www.cromfordreport.com/armlsstatszip.php?Name=John%20Hall%20Associates&Address=Successful%20Agents&Logo=http%3A%2F%2Fjohnhall.com%2FAssets%2Fimages%2Fjohn-hall-rocks%2Fsuccessful-agents.jpg&ListZIP=85260
Again, you’ll need to copy that whole thing. If you would like to change the default zip code, remove 85260 from the end and add whatever zip code you would like. Again test after creation.
How They Open:
As you know, when you open a hyperlink they don’t all work the same. Some open in a New Window, some open in the Same Window, and some open a pop-up window. When you add hyperlinks to your site with the hyperlink icon, one of the options says “Target”. This is what affects how the link will open.
The two most popular choices are New Window (aka: “_blank”) and Same Window (aka: “_self”). When you add the link, pick which one you’d like. For the Cromford charts, I think New Window is better than Same Window so your website stays open behind the graphs. You can either create the link through the hyperlink icon with the URLs above, or here’s the code to paste in the HTML or Source editor.
This example is a zip code report that opens in a New Window:
<a href=”http://www.cromfordreport.com/armlsstatszip.php?Name=John%20Hall%20Associates&Address=Successful%20Agents&Logo=http%3A%2F%2Fjohnhall.com%2FAssets%2Fimages%2Fjohn-hall-rocks%2Fsuccessful-agents.jpg&ListZIP=85260″ target=”_blank” title=”Real Estate Statistics”>Real Estate Stats By Zip Code</a>
Since this is the HTML Code, do not paste this into your Visual editor. You’ll need to first click “Code” or “HTML” or “Source” (depending on what your website calls it) and paste it there.
When you preview how it’s displayed it should look like this:
Real Estate Stats By Zip Code
Some editors – like the one in Superlative – allow you to choose Pop-Up Window. I like that option as well. I tried to copy and paste that code here, but our blog software messes it up. If you would like it, ask in a comment, or talk to me on the John Hall & Associates’ Facebook page. We’ll figure out a way to get it to you.
Using Buttons Instead of Text
Let’s be real, text isn’t the most visually appealing type of hyperlink. For these charts, I prefer using images or buttons to help draw attention to the link. Feel free to create whatever buttons you would like, and use those as your click-able link. I’ll use an example button to demonstrate.
Hyperlinking an image is a little different than hyperlinking text. Instead of highlighting the words you would like to link, highlight the image. Some text editors don’t have an “Add Image” button, so I’ll include the code you can paste in the Source editor.
<a href=”http://www.cromfordreport.com/armlsstatszip.php?Name=John%20Hall%20Associates&Address=Successful%20Agents&Logo=http%3A%2F%2Fjohnhall.com%2FAssets%2Fimages%2Fjohn-hall-rocks%2Fsuccessful-agents.jpg&ListZIP=85260″ target=”_blank”><img height=”128″ border=”0″ width=”100″ alt=”Real Estate Market Trends” src=”http://johnhall.com/Assets/images/john-hall-rocks/market-trends.gif” /></a>
Now when you copy and paste this code into the HTML editor it should appear on your site like this:
Okay, good luck! If you have questions or success stories I’m all ears.
ARMLS UPDATE – September 2009 Market Review
Early returns for September as reported by ARMLS show:
Closed @ 7934;
Pending remain strong @ 12,309;
Active Listings down slightly @ 31,024.
Will the headlines in a couple of weeks talk about September’s market drop-off? Maybe, but don’t you believe it. The initial closed numbers (7934) for September are off about 1% from August – that’s fewer than 80 sales. September 2009 closings are up 28% from September 2008. 2009 YTD closings exceeded 70,000 or plus 17% over all of 2008 with 3 months still to go.
September 2009 should be noted for its REO drop-off. REO’s sunk below 50% of all closings for the first time in a while-coming in at 47% (3786). Pending bank owns have dropped to 38% (4640) a signal the trend will continue. Short Sales continue to increase, accounting for 20% of Closings (1557), with 30 % (3665) lurking in Pending status – a sign of further increases.
I thought you might be interested in the numbers as we approach the deadline of taking advantage of the $8000 First Home Buyer tax credit. If you’re not in escrow shortly, you may be disappointed if you’re counting on closing in time to get the credit. Remember the Thanksgiving Holiday will make end of November closings a challenge.
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